12. Building Research Establishment (BRE) data analysis on HMOs in Arun District and additional analysis

 

12. Building Research Establishment (BRE) data analysis on HMOs in Arun District and additional analysis

The council had previously commissioned the BRE to undertake a stock modelling assessment in 2020. The BRE was then commissioned in 2021 to undertake further research into the data and provide analysis and information on the district’s housing stock and in particular, HMOs. The additional work was intended to identify their location and condition to determine if there was evidence for further regulation of the private rented sector.

The BRE undertook the research which culminated in the production of a report “BRE Integrated Dwelling Level Housing Stock Modelling and Database for Arun District Council: Analysis of the Private Rented Sector, including HMOs”. Part of the BRE Housing Stock Model Data analysis is shown below, and the complete BRE report is contained within Appendix 3 of this consultation document.

BRE’s findings are estimates based upon modelled data. BRE provides no representation, warranty or guarantee in respect of the modelled data.

In the following BRE analysis, where not specified, these abbreviations are used:

HSCD – Housing Stock Condition Dataset

TDS - Tenancy Deposit Scheme.

SAP – Standard Assessment Procedure

SimpleSAP – An estimate of a residential dwelling’s likely SAP score. It is not based on the full required range of data for a SAP calculation or a reduced data SAP calculation (RDSAP). It should only ever be considered an estimate of the SAP score, and used as a guide

In maps having lower bounds and upper bounds in their titles, this refers to the range between two numbers. For example, in a data range of 1-4 the lower bound is more than the lowest number, so more than one, and the upper bound is equal to or less than the highest number, so equal to or less than four.

Summary of private rented sector analysis

HMOs

There is an estimated total of 1,396 HMOs in Arun, of which approximately 391 come under the mandatory licensing scheme.

Marine ward has the highest number of HMOs (193 HMOs, 10% of private rented stock in that ward), followed by River ward (177 HMOs, 9%) and Hotham ward (156 HMOs, 14%). The HMOs in all three of these wards stand out as also having higher levels of estimated category 1 hazards (Marine 8%, River 5%, Hotham 9%).

There are 636 buildings with the potential to be a Section 257 HMO in Arun. Arundel & Walberton and River wards have the highest numbers of potential Section 257 HMOs (82, 81). This is particularly significant for Arundel & Walberton as this is a much higher proportion of the ward’s 579 private rented sector dwellings compared to River ward’s 1,907.

Private rented sector including selective licensing

Overall, the percentage of dwellings in the private rented sector across Arun is 19% which is comparable to the national average of 19%. Of the 23 wards in Arun, 7 have a percentage of private rented sector dwellings greater than the national average, in particular Marine (52.8%), River (40.5%) and Hotham (39.2%).

Two analysis area within Arun were identified based on levels of private rented stock, which were a) 3 wards in excess of 30% and b) 4 wards with 19-30% (i.e. above the national average of 19%).

Of the wards within Arun with over 30% private rented stock, Marine and River wards have the highest level of category 1 hazards (9%) and disrepair (5%). Compared to Arun’s overall private rented stock, all three of these wards generally tend to have slightly higher levels of each of the property condition indicators.

Of the wards in Arun with 19–30% private rented stock, Beach ward has the highest level of hazards (10%). Levels of falls hazards are also highest in Felpham West (5%). Compared to Arun’s overall private rented stock, in general the wards in this category have higher levels of each of the property condition indicators.

Incidents of ASB in recent years (2019 and 2020) have been highest in River and Marine wards, with Courtwick with Toddington increasing greatly between 2019 and 2020 to have the third highest number of incidents in 2020.

75% of private rented dwellings in Marine ward are located in the 20% most deprived LSOAs in England, closely followed by 74% in River ward. There are 52% in Hotham ward and 49% in Pevensey ward. These are all notably higher than the figure for Arun’s private rented stock as a whole (27%).

There are specific areas within the wards identified which have higher levels of private rented stock and deprivation and disrepair which could be considered for targeted interventions.

Source: BRE Integrated Dwelling Level Housing Stock Modelling and Database for Arun District Council: Analysis of the Private Rented Sector, including HMOs. (September 2022).

Introduction

Below is directly taken from the BRE “Integrated Dwelling Level Housing Stock Modelling and Database for Arun District Council: Analysis of the Private Rented Sector, including HMOs” report:

“In 2020, the Council commissioned BRE’s data driven solution to provide a comprehensive range of housing condition and energy efficiency variables to enable the Council to determine the most effective steps to improve the efficiency of the housing stock and improve household’s health and wellbeing. The dwelling-level data also supports the Council’s obligation to “keep the housing conditions in their area under review” under the Housing Act 2004. With a housing stock of over 70,000, it is crucial that the Council can effectively identify areas for action.

The BRE Housing Stock Models provide the Council with dwelling information on various Housing Standards Variables, focusing on private rented sector housing. These variables provide Arun District Council with detailed information on the likely condition of the stock and the geographical distribution of properties of interest. These properties are likely to be suitable targets for energy efficiency improvements or other forms of intervention, such as mitigating Housing Health and Safety Rating (HHSRS) hazards.

Arun District Council also commissioned BRE to assist with gathering intelligence on Section 257 HMOs in their area. Section 257 HMOs are, by their very nature, difficult to identify as they are not typically known to the Council. To assist the Council, dwelling level information gathered in the BRE Integrated Dwelling Level Housing Stock Model project was used to rule out buildings that were unlikely to be classified as Section 257 HMOs. This resulted in a list of potential Section 257 HMOs.

Project aim

The main purpose of this project was to provide data on key private rented sector housing variables for Arun in order to establish whether there was evidence to consider introduction of additional HMO licensing schemes, Article 4 Directive or selective licensing schemes for either the entire district or specific wards. The main aims were therefore to:

• Identify HMOs, including estimates of HMOs subject to mandatory licensing and assessment of category 1 hazards and disrepair in HMOs.
• Identification of potential Section 257 HMOs at building level.
• Analysis of the private rented sector, including size of the sector and distribution of private rented dwellings, assessment of category 1 hazards and disrepair and analysis of social factors and their distribution, including deprivation and migration.
• Analyse private rented stock focussing on the selective licensing criteria including property condition migration, anti-social behaviour (ASB), and deprivation.

Integrating local data sources

Arun provided HMO and updated TDS data which were used to update the BRE dwelling level models to provide an integrated housing stock condition database. Their data sources are shown in Table 1. These data sources were used to inform tenure by assigning these dwellings as private rented stock. The HMO data also assisted in the analysis of HMOs in Arun, providing data of known HMOs.

To allow these data sources provided by the Council to be linked to the BRE Dwelling Level Stock Models, an address matching exercise was required to link each address to the Experian address key. Address matching is rarely 100% successful due to a number of factors including:

• Incomplete address or postcodes
• Variations in how the address is written e.g. Flat 1 or Ground floor flat
• Additions to the main dwelling e.g. annexes or out-buildings

Experience indicates that, for address files in good order, match rates are around 75% - 95%. Table 1 provides the address matching results for the data sources provided by Arun and the resulting impact on the modelling process.

Following the integration of the new data sources, the BRE Housing Stock Model was re-run generating updated model outputs which were provided in the HSCD.

Table 1: Address matching results and impact on the modelling process.

Address matching results and impact on the modelling process.

Data source	Total no. of records	No. (and %) of addresses matched	Notes / impact on the modelling process
HMO data	370 - total records available	275 (91.1% of de-duplicated records)	302 - remaining records after de-duplication
TDS data	18,321 - total received	8,769 (78.7% of de-duplicated records)	11,316 - remaining records after de-duplication

Private rented sector analysis

This section provides analysis for the private rented sector in Arun. It covers the following analysis:

• Houses in Multiple Occupation (HMOs), including estimates of HMOs subject to mandatory licensing and assessment of category 1 hazards and disrepair in HMOs.
• Identification of potential Section 257 HMOs at building level.
• Analysis of the private rented sector, including size of the sector and distribution of private rented dwellings, assessment of category 1 hazards and disrepair and analysis of social factors and their distribution, including deprivation and migration.

Table 2 summarises the results for the private sector stock in Arun, while Table 3 shows the numbers by ward as well as the percentage of private sector dwellings which are HMOs and licensable HMOs at ward level. Marine ward has the highest number of HMOs (193 HMOs, 10% of private rented stock in that ward), followed by River ward (177 HMOs, 9%), Hotham ward (156 HMOs, 14%) and Orchard ward (143 HMOs, 21%). These four wards also have the highest numbers and proportions of licensable HMOs.

Table 2: Summary of HMOs within the Arun private sector stock out of total of 67,553 private sector dwellings.

Summary of HMOs within the Arun private sector stock out of total of 67,553 private sector dwellings.

Arun	HMOs	Mandatory Licensing Scheme HMOs
Provided by Council	275	201
Modelled	1,121	190
Total	1,396	391

Table 3: Number (and % of private rented stock) of HMOs and mandatory licensable HMOs by ward.

Number (and % of private rented stock) of HMOs and mandatory licensable HMOs by ward.

Ward	Dwellings - private rented stock	HMOs	Mandatory Licensable HMOs
Aldwick East	250	20 (8%)	6 (2%)
Aldwick West	262	26 (10%)	2 (1%)
Angmering & Findon	583	49 (8%)	20 (3%)
Arundel & Walberton	579	63 (11%)	18 (3%)
Barnham	506	25 (5%)	11 (2%)
Beach	564	65 (12%)	13 (2%)
Bersted	623	56 (9%)	13 (2%)
Brookfield	489	34 (7%)	10 (2%)
Courtwick with Toddington	996	80 (8%)	12 (1%)
East Preston	399	24 (6%)	4 (1%)
Felpham East	286	22 (8%)	4 (1%)
Felpham West	594	48 (8%)	9 (2%)
Ferring	182	9 (5%)	3 (2%)
Hotham	1,147	156 (14%)	57 (5%)
Marine	1,845	193 (10%)	64 (3%)
Middleton-on-Sea	355	17 (5%)	5 (1%)
Orchard	697	143 (21%)	46 (7%)
Pagham	247	14 (6%)	4 (2%)
Pevensey	426	52 (12%)	14 (3%)
River	1,907	177 (9%)	61 (3%)
Rustington East	379	37 (10%)	3 (1%)
Rustington West	675	40 (6%)	2 (0%)
Yapton	432	46 (11%)	10 (2%)

 

Map 1 shows the geographic distribution of HMOs and Map 2 shows the distribution of mandatory licensable HMOs. The maps show the majority of HMOs to be concentrated in the more urban areas of Bognor Regis and Littlehampton, particularly in the Marine and River wards, which may be due to the proximity of the train stations in each of the towns as these provide direct access to London, potentially appealing to the commuter population. There are also other notable concentrations in Orchard and Hotham wards. There is a similar picture for licensable HMOs, although the distribution is also more evenly spread towards the edges of the towns.

Map 1: Count of HMOs N.B. in the legend, values are greater than the lower bound and less than or equal to the upper bound.

Map 2: Count of mandatory licensable HMOs N.B. in the legend, values are greater than the lower bound and less than or equal to the upper bound.

Housing standards variables for HMOs

HMOs compared to non-HMOs

Table 4 and Figure 1 show the results for each of the housing standards variables in Arun for the private rented sector split into non-HMOs and HMOs. Figure 2 compares the average SimpleSAP ratings for HMOs compared to non-HMOs.

HMOs have higher levels of all hazards, excess cold, fall hazards and fuel poverty (Low Income High Costs). Levels of disrepair, fuel poverty (10%) and low income households are higher in non HMOs, with low-income households being markedly higher at 35% for non-HMOs compared to 12% for HMOs

Table 4: Estimates of the percentage of private rented dwellings meeting the housing standards variables – HMOs compared to non-HMOs.

Figure 1: Estimates of the percentage of private rented dwellings meeting the housing standards variables – HMOs compared to non-HMOs.

Figure 2: Estimated average SimpleSAP ratings for HMOs compared to non-HMOs in Arun.

Non-licensable HMOs compared to licensable HMOs

Table 5 and Figure 3 show the results for each of the housing standards variables in Arun for HMOs split into non-licensable HMOs and mandatory HMOs. Licensable HMOs have higher levels of all hazards, falls hazards, disrepair, fuel poverty (both definitions) and low-income households. Licensable HMOs have far higher levels of fuel poverty under the low-income high-costs definition than non-licensable HMOs. Both have similar levels of excess cold.

Figure 4 compares the average SimpleSAP ratings for non-licensable HMOs and licensable HMOs. It is estimated that licensable HMOs have poorer SAP ratings (average 57) than non-licensable HMOs (average 60).

Table 5: Estimates of the percentage of dwellings meeting the housing standards variables - non-mandatory licensable HMOs compared to mandatory licensable HMOs.

Figure 3: Estimates of the percentage of dwellings meeting the housing standards variables - non-licensable HMOs compared to licensable HMOs.

Figure 4: Estimated average SimpleSAP ratings for non-licensable HMOs compared to licensable HMOs in Arun.

Section 257 HMOs

Section 257 HMOs are, by their very nature, difficult to identify as they are not typically known to the council. To assist the council, dwelling level information gathered in the BRE Integrated Dwelling Level Housing Stock Model project was used to rule out buildings that were unlikely to be classified as section 257 HMOs. This resulted in BRE providing a list of potential section 257 HMOs.

These are buildings or a part of a building, which:

• Have been converted entirely into self-contained flats and where the conversion did/does not comply with the Building Regulation 1991 standards.
• Are occupied by 3 or more people.
• Are occupied by 2 or more households; and
• Have less than two-thirds of the self-contained flats being owner-occupied (owner-occupiers include person(s) who have been granted a lease for a term of more than 21 years; person(s) who hold the freehold estate in the block of flats; or a member of the household of the person(s) who either hold the lease or freehold).

Methodology

To assist the council, the following processes were used by BRE to rule out buildings that were unlikely to be classified as section 257 HMOs:

• All non-private rented properties were removed.
• All purpose-built flats were removed.
• Dwellings were removed if they had been inspected by the Council. This included:
  • Known HMOs; and
  • Building control and planning records.

Where any dwellings remained following the above processes, the building was marked as potentially being a section 257 HMO.

Results

Table 6 summarises the results for Section 257 HMOs as well as the HMO and licensable HMO figures for Arun. Both the HMOs and Mandatory Licensable HMOs are dwelling level results, whilst the Section 257 HMOs are recorded at building level. Under the Section 257 HMO criteria there are a total of 636 buildings which have the potential to be Section 257 HMOs.

Table 7 shows the estimated numbers in each ward and as a percentage of private stock of HMOs and Mandatory Licensable HMOs as well as buildings identified as Section 257 HMOs.

Table 6: HMOs, Mandatory Licensable HMOs - number and percentage, and number of buildings with the potential to be a Section 257 in Arun.

HMOs, Mandatory Licensable HMOs - number and percentage, and number of buildings with the potential to be a Section 257 in Arun.

No. of private sector dwellings	HMOs	Mandatory Licensing Scheme HMOs	Section 257 HMOs
67,553	1,396	391	636

Table 7: HMOs, Mandatory Licensable HMOs - number and percentage, and number of buildings with the potential to be a Section 257 by ward for Arun. N.B. Section 257 HMOs are identified at building level and so cannot be expressed as a percentage of private rented dwellings.

HMOs, Mandatory Licensable HMOs - number and percentage, and number of buildings with the potential to be a Section 257 by ward for Arun.

Ward	Dwellings - private rented stock	HMOs	Mandatory Licensable HMOs	Section 257 HMOs (building level)
Aldwick East	250	20 (8%)	6 (2%)	11
Aldwick West	262	26 (10%)	2 (1%)	18
Angmering & Findon	583	49 (8%)	20 (3%)	30
Arundel & Walberton	579	63 (11%)	18 (3%)	82
Barnham	506	25 (5%)	11 (2%)	34
Beach	564	65 (12%)	13 (2%)	15
Bersted	623	56 (9%)	13 (2%)	15
Brookfield	489	34 (7%)	10 (2%)	9
Courtwick with Toddington	996	80 (8%)	12 (1%)	25
East Preston	399	24 (6%)	4 (1%)	28
Felpham East	286	22 (8%)	4 (1%)	7
Felpham West	594	48 (8%)	9 (2%)	44
Ferring	182	9 (5%)	3 (2%)	10
Hotham	1,147	156 (14%)	57 (5%)	31
Marine	1,845	193 (10%)	64 (3%)	38
Middleton-on-Sea	355	17 (5%)	5 (1%)	13
Orchard	697	143 (21%)	46 (7%)	35
Pagham	247	14 (6%)	4 (2%)	12
Pevensey	426	53 (12%)	14 (3%)	16
River	1,907	177 (9%)	61 (3%)	81
Rustington East	379	37 (10%)	3 (1%)	18
Rustington West	675	40 (6%)	2 (0%)	26
Yapton	432	46 (11%)	10 (2%)	22

Potential areas for investigation within Arun’s HMOs

HMOs provide crucial accommodation options within the private rented sector, for groups who may not be able to afford to purchase a property. HMOs increase the options available for people which is extremely important in areas where the housing supply may be low. However, poorly managed HMOs can negatively impact the community and occupants.

Table 8 shows the number of HMOs in each ward as well as the proportion of those HMOs containing a category 1 hazard or being in disrepair. Wards with high levels of HMOs and with high proportions of hazards or in disrepair may be a starting point when considering which areas to be targeted for improvement, for example via an Additional Licensing scheme or for consideration for Article 4 Direction. Table 8 also includes the number of reported incidents of anti-social behaviour by ward in 2019 and 2020.

The data indicates that Marine ward has the greatest number of HMOs (193), and of these 20% are estimated to have a category 1 hazard, 12% to have a falls hazard and 8% to suffer from excess cold. Marine ward also has the highest number of mandatory licensable HMOs (64). River ward has 177 HMOs with 11% of these estimated to have a category 1 hazard, largely due to the high level of falls hazards (10%). This ward also has the second highest number of mandatory licensable HMOs (61) and the greatest numbers of reported incidents of antisocial behaviour in both 2019 and 2020. The third highest number of HMOs is found in Hotham ward (156), and this is closely followed by Orchard ward (143). 15% of dwellings in Hotham ward are estimated to suffer from category 1 hazards and 3% of properties are estimated to be in disrepair. Rustington East ward also stands out as whilst there are only 37 HMOs, the condition of these could be poor – with 38% are estimated to have a category 1 hazard.

Table 8: Number of HMOs and percentage of those HMOs containing a category 1 hazard or being in disrepair, by ward for Arun.

Number of HMOs and percentage of those HMOs containing a category 1 hazard or being in disrepair, by ward for Arun.

Ward	HMOs	HHSRS category 1 hazards All hazards	HHSRS category 1 hazards Excess cold	HHSRS category 1 hazards Fall hazards	Disrepair
Aldwick East	20	3  (15%)	1 (5%)	2 (10%)	0 (0%)
Aldwick West	26	2 (8%)	1 (4%)	0 (0%)	1 (4%)
Angmering & Findon	49	5 (10%)	3 (6%)	2 (4%)	0 (0%)
Arundel & Walberton	63	5 (8%)	4 (6%)	1 (2%)	0 (0%)
Barnham	25	2 (8%)	1 (4%)	1 (4%)	0 (0%)
Beach	65	10 (15%)	2 (3%)	7 (11%)	2 (3%)
Bersted	56	3 (5%)	2 (4%)	1 (2%)	1 (2%)
Brookfield	34	2 (6%)	1 (3%)	1 (3%)	0 (0%)
Courtwick with Toddington	80	3 (4%)	1 (1%)	2 (3%)	0 (0%)
East Preston	24	1 (4%)	0 (0%)	1 (4%)	0 (0%)
Felpham East	22	3 (14%)	2 (9%)	1 (5%)	0 (0%)
Felpham West	48	1 (2%)	1 (2%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Ferring	9	1 (11%)	0 (0%)	1 (11%)	0 (0%)
Hotham	156	23 (15%)	8 (5%)	13 (8%)	5 (3%)
Marine	193	39 (20%)	15 (8%)	23 (11%)	8 (4%)
Middleton-on-Sea	17	1 (6%)	0 (0%)	1 (6%)	0 (0%)
Orchard	143	15 (10%)	6 (4%)	7 (5%)	4 (3%)
Pagham	14	1 (7%)	0 (0%)	1 (7%)	0 (0%)
Pevensey	52	2 (4%)	0 (0%)	2 (4%)	0 (0%)
River	177	20 (11%)	2 (1%)	17 (10%)	6 (3%)
Rustington East	37	14 (38%)	10 (27%)	3 (8%)	0 (0%)
Rustington West	40	1 (3%)	0 (0%)	1 (3%)	0 (0%)
Yapton	46	1 (2%)	0 (0%)	1 (2%)	0 (0%)

BRE Conclusion

Arun District Council previously commissioned BRE to undertake a series of modelling exercises on their housing stock to provide an integrated housing stock condition database, making use of available local data sources (Local Land and Property Gazetteer (LLPG), tenure and Houses in Multiple Occupation (HMO) data) plus the EPC data which have been integrated into BRE’s standard Housing Stock Condition Database (HSCD).

Arun District Council also requested identification and analysis of potential HMOs (including mandatory licensable HMOs) and their condition; providing an assessment on buildings with potential for being Section 257 HMOs; analysis of private rented stock focussing on the selective licensing criteria including property condition migration, ASB, and deprivation.

Such information will facilitate the decision-making process for targeting resources to improve the condition of housing and to prevent ill health resulting from poor housing conditions. Furthermore, it will assist in determining if there is evidence for further regulation of the private rented sector, such as establishing additional HMO Licensing, Article 4 Direction under the Town and Country Planning Act 1990 or Selective Licensing.

HMO analysis

The Council provided lists of addresses for HMOs (370 dwellings in total, comprised of 292 licensed HMOs and 78 non-licensable HMOs, with an overall match rate of 74%). Based on the matched data, there is an estimated total of 1,396 HMOs in Arun, with 391 being licensable.

Marine ward has the highest number of HMOs (193 HMOs, 10% of private rented stock in that ward), followed by River ward (177 HMOs, 9%) and Hotham ward (156 HMOs, 14%).

Under the Section 257 HMO criteria there are a total of 636 buildings which have the potential to be Section 257 HMOs. The wards with the highest number of Section 257 HMOs are Arundel & Walberton (82) and River (81). For Arundel & Walberton, this is a particularly high proportion of the private rented stock for the ward at 14%. Felpham West also has a high number of Section 257 HMOs (44).

As detailed above, the highest numbers of HMOs were identified in Marin, River and Hotham wards. The HMOs in these wards also stand out as having generally higher levels of category 1 hazards that the average for Arun: Marine (20%), River (11%), Hotham (15%). These are far higher levels of hazards than the average for Arun of 8% for Arun’s private rented stock.

Summary

The BRE Housing Stock Models provided the Council with dwelling level information on various Housing Standards Variables, focussing on private rented sector housing. These variables provide Arun District Council with detailed information on the likely condition of the stock and the geographical distribution of properties of interest.

Specialist analysis of the private rented sector included identification and analysis of potential HMOs (including mandatory licensable HMOs) and their condition; providing an assessment on buildings with potential for being Section 257 HMOs; analysis of private rented stock focussing on the selective licensing criteria including property condition migration, ASB, and deprivation.

These properties are likely to be suitable targets for energy efficiency improvements or other forms of intervention, such as mitigating Housing Health and Safety Rating System (HHSRS) hazards.”.

End of quoted text from BRE’s “Integrated Dwelling Level Housing Stock Modelling and Database for Arun District Council: Analysis of the Private Rented Sector, including HMOs” report.